Are there any foolproof methods of gauging or identifying economic recovery? I know that sounds a little like a GCSE economics exam question, but having read recently of five possible ‘shapes’ to any revival in our economic condition, investors may be better off trusting their instincts rather than fancy graphs.

When the economy picks up, which I am afraid could be some time off, observant folk will quietly acknowledge subtle, but visible, signs that things are beginning to improve.

More new cars start appearing on our roads, there is a greater abundance of estate agents ‘for sale’ signs and a greater number of removal vans negotiating tight bends and awkward parking spaces.

Conversely, a higher incidence of builder’s skips and scaffolding tells us that people are disinclined to move.

They do not want to sell their home for less than they think it is worth, so they take advantage of cheaper building costs and improve their houses instead.

This is clear evidence that lending remains tight and that people are prepared to batten down the hatches, rather than push the boat out and take on a larger mortgage.

There seems little doubt, now the true figures have been revealed, that economic recovery will be considerably slower than expected.

Initially, the City had been betting on a V-shaped recovery, where economic activity and performance rebounds sharply. Unfortunately, such optimism is misplaced, though what astonishes me is the over reliance on short-term data to arrive at such a conclusion.

Another group of analysts believe we will encounter a W-shaped recovery, where economic growth falls, then rises, but falls back sharply before, in the words of one fund manager, recovering with the second leg of the W more gradual: “Like an airliner taking off.”

There is some merit in this view, particularly as house prices remain under pressure and there is little sign consumers are ready to start spending when many are dangerously over-borrowed.

Those who subscribe to the view that we will experience a W-shaped recovery are not, rightly, expecting a roaring comeback.

Then there is a group who maintain that we’ll see a WW-shaped recovery.

In other words, two double dips, where the economy will be slow to recover and as it does, it will be blighted by brief downturns along the way.

Again, such opinion is well-founded as it takes into account rising unemployment, markedly higher taxes and continued restricted access to credit, each of which slow growth.

At least one batch of fund managers believes the economy will stagnate before recovering — a classic U-shaped recovery —although no-one will attempt to identify whether we are still on the downward slope, or near the foot of the curved part of the U.

Finally, several City folk believe we will encounter an L-shaped recovery which is, of course, no recovery at all, at least for a very long time.

This strikes me as being overly pessimistic, for while government intervention has, at best, been clumsy, now the truth is out, the full extent of our economic woes are known.

This means they can at least be tackled, but where does this leave savers and investors? Given how varied expert opinion is, I would suggest ‘searching for safety’ is the answer.