Phil Bloomfield on a US politician’s analysis of how our world is set to change

A question put to Al Gore when on the road, “What are the global drivers of change?” nagged away at him and started a brainstorm that ended with this volume of impressive research and analysis.

Inevitably and conveniently, his list of six critical drivers of global change includes the climate crisis. Added to that are the dramatic changes in the global economy, the role of nations in the balance of power, the digital and biotech revolutions, resource consumption and finally what he terms the emergence of a global consciousness which transcends national borders.

Each of the chapters and the introduction starts with a spider diagram to outline its structure. I found these useful in remembering just where I was in the sometimes convoluted discussion.

Our spider for the Power in the Balance chapter has ten legs labelled the changing nature of warfare, the rise of corporations, the redistribution to multiple emerging centres, democratisation, the rise of China, the relative decline of the US, the shift from political systems to markets, the shift from nation states to private actors, dysfunctional global governance — and, interestingly, the imminent likely failure of the EU.

Each of the legs is then broken down into feet/toes, I suppose, as he focuses in on well-researched topics. The decline of the US splays out to several interesting branches, including the apt “confidence in the US leadership declines sharply” — no crystal ball really needed there, then.

Gore has a huge range of experience and enviable access to draw together the contrasting elements into a consistent whole in his masterful analysis. He has clearly been supported by a team of wonderful researchers, for it would have been impossible for him to do this on his own in the time-frame. The notes and references take up a third of his book and are comprehensive, so it would be worth buying this for those sections alone, never mind the analytical prose.

Of course, although it’s supposedly about the future, it’s really about the present, and the current view of the future. There’s always a big problem for all predictors of the future: a test of your perspicacity will be along soon. I’ll put this on my bookshelf and see what turns up.

The Future
By Al Gore
WH Allen, £25

Detailed look at the drivers of global change