"A good big 'un will always beat a good little 'un" is an old rowing adage - that's why I'm taking Oxford to win the 154th Boat Race from Putney to Mortlake on Saturday (5.15pm).

Duncan Holland, Cambridge's coach, whose crew are giving away 12lbs per man, professed to being unconcerned by the weight disparity.

"Watermanship and guile might come into play," he said.

Oxford, with an average weight of 15st 6lbs, are less than an ounce a man lighter than the heaviest crew ever - the Dark Blues' 2005 winning crew.

Coach Sean Bowden describes his crew, as "quiet, serious and focused, as well as big". He added: "We picked the crew on rowing ability, not size".

One record broken this year is that Oxford's American international Mike Wherley is, at 36, the oldest oarsman ever to appear in the race.

German international Jan Herzog is also mature at 33 but, due to more youngsters in the Oxford line-up, both crews average out at 24 years.

Oxford have five crew members aged 22 and under, to Cambridge's three.

There was a dramatic development on Wednesday when the Light Blues were forced to change their stroke man.

Shane O'Mara, a United States international, reported ill, and was replaced by fellow American Ryan Monaghan, who was scheduled to stroke their Goldie reserve crew.

Holland said: "Selection earlier went to the wire, and Ryan was a strong contender. We must take a big breath and move on."

He added that there would be some fine-tuning since stroke the most exposed seat in the boat.

The build-up has given the watching pundits less to chew over than normal.

Nobody seemed to be giving too much away and, when the Dark Blues raced at the Reading Head and won with some ease, Bowden subsequently revealed that his crew were racing with orders to keep the rate of striking under control.

Work on the Tideway has shown both crews to be capable of striking high rates.

Oxford, in particular, really hit the high levels in the early parts of their work-outs.

Cambridge look to have less power per stroke, understandable perhaps with their lesser weight, but have looked reasonably comfortable in rough water, and it could be windy tomorrow.

As to the pedigrees, the edge would seem to be with Oxford, who boast three British Under 23 performers, three Henley Regatta winners and three full internationals.

They have Olly Moore from Oxfordshire, Jan Herzog from Germany and Wherley the latter, with three world championship golds and two Olympic performances behind him.

Cambridge, nevertheless, have three British Under 23s, two Henley winners and three full internationals in cox Rebecca Dowbiggin, Monaghan and Tim Perkins, of Australia.

Another Australian, Tom Edwards of Cambridge, is the only former rower Blue in either crew, although both coxes have Boat Races behind them.

The telling point here is that three 2007 Oxford Blues did not make the 'cut' this year and will row for the reserves Isis.

So, what conclusions?

Oxford moved to odds of 8-11 favourites after the weigh-in.

From what I have seen, particularly in a private visit to Caversham to watch Oxford just over a week ago, I have to side with the bookies.

In the expected windy conditions, the Dark Blues power and not insignificant technique, should give coach Bowden, in his 11th year with Oxford, his sixth victory.