Niall Ferguson’s office in the London School of Economics is situated in the lofty-sounding ‘Ideas’ department. I meet the eminent historian there one lunchtime, to find him hungrily attending to an assortment of sushi.

Introductions made, I soon discover him to be, in between fishy mouthfuls, as cerebral as our surrounds suggest. “R.G. Collingwood was one of Oxford’s greatest philosophers and one of my heroes,” declares the debonair, articulate Ferguson, chopsticks in hand. “He said that while recapturing the thoughts of the dead is a worthwhile and illuminating endeavour, we are mainly trying to shed light on our present predicament and future scenarios.” His latest book, Civilization: The West and the Rest, charts the rise of Western civilization from medieval Europe through to the late 20th-century economic might of the US, searching for an answer to the question: why did the West succeed while other civilizations foundered? He concludes that the West developed six aspects to its society that enabled it to thrive (snappily branded ‘killer applications’ ): competition, science, democracy, medicine, consumerism and the work ethic.

The book charts the successes of the West, but also announces its imminent demise, as China and India mature into financial powerhouses.

Ferguson is as much concerned with the future as with the past. “The whole point about history is that it illuminates the present and future better than anything else,” he says. Isn’t it a risky business, though, for a historian to enter the guessing game of what might happen next? “The really risky thing is not to think about the future at all,” he says. “The second riskiest thing is to think about the future using some theoretical model. The least risky thing is to ask what does the past tell us about possible futures. It is guesswork, but educated guesswork. What else have we got to go on?”

He has become increasingly well-known for his TV documentary series exploring big themes such as empire and global finance (a Channel 4 series accompanying this book has recently started). Politically, he is right-of-centre and never short on scorn for left-leaning colleagues.

He believes Western civilization is the pinnacle of human civilization, with those lucky enough to live in the West benefiting from huge advances in so many fields of human endeavour. “All the achievements of centuries of economic and political competition, scientific innovation, building the rule of law, modern medicine, these are all things that make Western Civilization very appealing, and they are things which if we didn’t have them we’d really miss them.”

But what about the two World Wars in the supposedly super-civilized West? “My book is intimately concerned with the self-destructive quality of Western Civilization,” he maintains, but he believes the upsides clearly outweigh the downside. “There are these huge conflicts but, guess what, the good guys win,” he says.

He grew up near Glasgow, before heading to Oxford University, where he taught for several years, met his wife, journalist Susan Douglas, and set up home.

They had three children together and, as Ferguson’s career mushroomed (he became Professor of History at Harvard, while remaining senior research fellow at Jesus College, Oxford, and retaining two other prestigious posts at US business schools), they were dubbed one of the country’s Tory ‘power couples’. Their marriage recently dissolved under the pressure of his constant cross-Atlantic commuting and hectic workload.

The millionaire historian, reported to command a £70,000 fee for a one-hour speech, is now based in London, close to the LSE, where he holds the Philippe Roman chair in history and international affairs. “I feel intimately connected to Oxford still,” he says. “I was there just on the weekend and it will always remain a home for me.”

With all his TV work, lecturing, consultancy, does he see himself more as CEO of Niall Ferguson plc, rather than a TV don? How many researchers did he employ for his latest book?

“The books side of things is incredibly small,” says Ferguson, whose next book will probably be his biggest yet — the official biography of his friend Henry Kissinger.

“I have one researcher in America and one in the UK. All they do is make photocopies of articles for me, to save time.

“For each book, I have shelves and shelves of reading material to digest. We have this strange thing in Britain where we say: ‘He can’t possibly write all these books.’ I find that incredibly annoying. I work hard. I like to work hard and write books. You can’t delegate that sort of thing.”

* Civilization: The West and The Rest is published by Allen Lane. Niall Ferguson will be at the Oxford Literary Festival on April 9 (www.oxfordliteraryfestival.com).