OXFORD United’s form this season suggests they are on course to narrowly avoid relegation if they can maintain their form over the last 15 games.
But the U’s would be cutting things incredibly fine if they lived up to boss Karl Robinson’s assertion last weekend.
After the 1-1 draw with Sunderland, the fourth game to finish level in a five-game unbeaten run, the head coach said: “If we draw every game from now until the end of the season we end up with enough points.”
Another, admittedly unlikely, 15 draws would take United to 48 points – and looking over the last ten seasons, the side finishing fourth bottom has an average total of 47.9.
Read also: Predicted table brings mixture of emotions for Oxford United boss Karl Robinson
But it would be dangerous to set a survival target that low.
Three sides, including Oldham Athletic last season, have been relegated with 50 points in the last decade.
A safer goal would be 52 points – a figure which has been safe in the last 25 third tier campaigns.
That leaves United with 19 points to accumulate in the last 15 games – exactly the same total they have amassed in the previous 15.
RECORD OF SIDES FINISHING 21ST IN LEAGUE ONE
(last ten seasons)
- 17/18: 50pts (Oldham Ath)
- 16/17: 49 (Port Vale)
- 15/16: 46 (Doncaster Rov)
- 14/15: 50 (Notts County)
- 13/14: 47 (Tranmere Rov)
- 12/13: 48 (Scunthorpe Utd)
- 11/12: 43 (Wycombe Wand)
- 10/11: 47 (Dagenham & Red)
- 09/10: 50 (Gillingham)
- 08/09: 49 (Northampton Tn)
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